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☆ Stocks could tank after an ill-advised 'melt-up' if the Fed cuts rates to avoid recession
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

There's a growing risk of a stock market melt-up, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. Yardeni said the return of the "Fed Put" means stocks could soar on the anticipation and realization of interest rate cuts. But stock market melt-ups are rarely sustainable and are often followed by a painful decline. With it comes increased risk of a stock market meltup," Yardeni said. For investors, the question is whether or not a potential stock market melt-up and subsequent decline will happen at prices a lot higher or lower from current levels.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, —, Jerome Powell, Yardeni's Organizations: Service, Federal, Wall Street

☆ People in Korea are buying gold from vending machines and convenience stores amid 2024's frenzy for the precious metal
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Korea's convenience stores and vending machines are selling gold, with younger people flocking to buy. Bite-sized gold bars have been selling since April, weighing in between 0.1 and 1.87 grams. AdvertisementGold bars are displayed for sale alongside packaged kimchi and ramen in convenience stores across Korea, with the yellow metal gaining among younger consumers in 2024. AdvertisementYoung Koreans are leading the pack of buyers snapping up gold from CU stores, accounting for 41.3% of the total purchases, according to data from the company's app. However, the country's central bank hasn't joined the gold rush, keeping its gold reserves steady at 104.4 tons since 2013.

Persons: —, hasn't, China —, David Rosenberg, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Service, Printing Corporation, Chosun, CNBC, World Gold Council Locations: Korea, South, South Korea, Asia's, China

☆ Markets worry Treasury yields could jump back to levels that sparked chaos last October
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-04 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is hovering below levels that caused a massive crash last fall. Yet, persistent inflation and weak Treasury auctions could boost yields past the 5% mark. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. That's why Treasury auctions have become attention-grabbers for markets, as investors watch to see if there are enough willing buyers. The dangers of 5%When 10-year yields broke through the 5% mark last fall, traders panicked and the S&P 500 nosedived nearly 6% from October's peak-to-trough.

Persons: —, That's, Treasurys, Bill Gross, Ed Yardeni, Eric Sterner, Yardeni, hasn't, they're, Goldman Sachs, Sterner Organizations: Service, Treasury, Business, Treasury Department, Federal, Yardeni Research, Investment, SEI, Apollon Wealth Management

☆ Japan's yen had a rollercoaster week amid suspected intervention. Here's what you need to know
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Shreyashi Sanyal | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

An undated photographic illustration of Japanese yen and the U.S. dollar bank notes. The yen touched 160.03 against the greenback on Monday, for the first time since 1990, but strengthened to 156 levels later that day amid speculation about an intervention by Japanese authorities. Japanese authorities are yet to issue an official statement confirming their role in propping up the currency. In the last few decades, while other global central banks have tightened their policies, Japan had maintained its ultra-loose policy, leading to concentrated carry trades in the Japanese yen. Market participants believe Japanese authorities will intervene further to prop up the currency.

Persons: Glowimages, they've, Nicholas Smith, Kazuo Ueda, Edward Yardeni Organizations: U.S, Glowimages, CNBC, Bank of America Global Research, Bank of Japan, Bank of, Federal Reserve, Yardeni Research Locations: propping, Japan, U.S, Bank of Japan

☆ Market needs to be 'disabused' of the expectation for two rate cuts this year, says Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarket needs to be 'disabused' of the expectation for two rate cuts this year, says Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the Fed's inflation fight, why he believes the current economic scenario is nothing like the stagflationary environment of the late 1970s, and more.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research

☆ Billionaire investor David Einhorn shares an overlooked theory for why gold prices have spiked so much
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-28 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The recent gold rally is counterintuitive, as high interest rates typically make bullion less attractive. But billionaire investor David Einhorn has a theory that he shared in his latest investor letter. Einhorn suggests that gold's rally is potentially due to countries in the East buying gold from Western nations. To explain the strong run for gold, billionaire investor David Einhorn offered a potential theory in his latest letter to investors published this week. Others, like billionaire investor Ray Dalio, say gold can hedge risks stemming from high government debt levels.

Persons: David Einhorn, Einhorn, —, there's, David Rosenberg, Ed Yardeni, Ray Dalio Organizations: Service, Federal, Greenlight, World Gold, People's Bank of Locations: China, People's Bank of China, India, Singapore

☆ Fed will keep rates higher longer: Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed will keep rates higher longer: Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the markets, the Fed's next move, and sector moves.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research

☆ 'We've never seen this many extremes': Strategists warn of dot-com bubble similarities as expensive US stocks struggle — but this 7-part strategy can still outperform
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-13 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

From late October through March, the S&P 500 enjoyed a virtually uninterrupted 27.6% rally based on better-than-expected earnings and economic data. And while it's still well below the dot-com bubble levels, it's still too close for comfort for many investors. Related story"Those higher rates are starting to push back on elevated valuations for stocks right now," Saglimbene said. "They're all much cheaper on an earnings basis than those Magnificent 7 companies," Saglimbene said. "So I think if we avoid a recession this year, the narrative will change to a broadening of companies and sectors that can participate in earnings growth this year."

Persons: aren't, Anthony Saglimbene, Rick Pitcairn, Pitcairn, it's, we've, Raheel Siddiqui, Neuberger Berman, Siddiqui, Jon Wolfenbarger, Albert Edwards, Bill Smead, James Ragan, DA Davidson, Ragan, Saglimbene, Indrani, she's, De, Davidson, Siddiqui's Organizations: Ameriprise, Business, DA, FTSE Russell, Investors Locations: Ameriprise

☆ The CPI isn't going to change the number of rate cuts, says BD8's Barbara Doran
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe CPI isn't going to change the number of rate cuts, says BD8's Barbara DoranBarbara Doran, BD8 Capital and Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research, join 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss the CPI report, inflation and the possibility of Fed rate cuts.

Persons: Barbara Doran Barbara Doran, Ed Yardeni Organizations: BD8, Research

☆ Watch CNBC’s full interview with BD8 Capital's Barbara Doran and Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with BD8 Capital's Barbara Doran and Ed YardeniBarbara Doran, BD8 Capital and Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research, join 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss the CPI report, inflation and the possibility of Fed rate cuts.

Persons: Barbara Doran, Ed Yardeni Barbara Doran, Ed Yardeni Organizations: BD8, Research

☆ You can thank the baby boomers for the stunning strength of the US economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

You can thank baby boomers for the strong US economy, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. AdvertisementThe US economy has baby boomers to thank for its strength and resilience even as some worry about a potential recession. Related storiesThere are now 47.7 million baby boomers who are not in the labor force, and that number grows by the day as more baby boomers hit their retirement age. Baby boomers hold a record $76.2 trillion in wealth, or about half the total US household net worth of $156.2 trillion. "The Baby Boomers watched a lot of Star Trek during the 1960s.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, hasn't Organizations: Seniors, Federal, Federal Reserve, Boomers, Trek

☆ The market again has adjusted its view on rate cuts, with as few as two now expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"While investors seem to be anxiously awaiting easing monetary policy, the current environment does not quite scream 'rate cuts!'" That sentiment has manifested itself lately in market pricing. That same day, the Labor Department will release the CPI report, which is expected to show the headline inflation rate rising 3.4% in March on a year-over-year basis, per Dow Jones. This is nonetheless "the right time to cut rates," wrote David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. "What has underpinned this market is the promise of a series of rate cuts including March, and now it has dwindled to just a few rate cuts.

Persons: Glenmede, Dow Jones, David Kelly, Kelly, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Ed Yardeni, nonfarm, Quincy Krosby, Krosby Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors, Labor Department, Asset Management, Fed, DataTrek, Yardeni, LPL

☆ A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns the AI and economic recovery narratives fueling stocks are weak as analyst optimism sours — and says the Fed is fueling a bubble as valuation
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

About 45% of changes to S&P 500 analysts' earnings estimates are upgrades, as shown in the chart below, down from 50% in early 2023. AdvertisementSociete GeneraleHistorically, analyst optimism has been a good indicator for the economy's direction. Below is the S&P 500's year-over-year percentage change along with the analyst optimism measure. He says the S&P 500 is in a bubble fueled by AI optimism and could fall as much as around 60%. He sees potential downside of 39% for the S&P 500.

Persons: —, Albert Edwards, Edwards, Powell's, Ed Yardeni, Let's, There's, Jeremy Grantham, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Business, Street, Nasdaq, Generale, Conference, Institute for Supply, subsiding, Fed, repo, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bears, Rosenberg Research, policymaking

☆ A growing chorus of experts don't think a rate cut is coming in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-06 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Investors are starting to take seriously the idea that the Fed might not cut interest rates in 2024. At this point, investors are viewing economic strength as ultimately good news for the stock market, if that means a recession is delayed. AdvertisementFrom seven, to three, to now potentially zero, projected interest rate cuts in 2024 are quickly going out of style on Wall Street. So a delay in interest rate cuts, on paper, would suggest lower stock prices. And better-than-expected first quarter profits have helped put a floor on a stock market that is trading near record highs, even as talks of interest rate cuts fade.

Persons: Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Mohamed El, Torsten Slok, Slok, Ken Fisher Organizations: Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Minneapolis Fed, Fed, Bank of America

☆ I'm not troubled by today's market pullback, says Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI'm not troubled by today's market pullback, says Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action and what's ahead for the economy.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research

☆ Reading into the rise in yields
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailReading into the rise in yieldsEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss what could stand in the way of the current market rally, how many times the Federal Reserve will cut rates this year, and what to expect from S&P earnings this year.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research, Federal Reserve

☆ A real-estate investor who built a portfolio of 30 residential units using the BRRRR method breaks down why he wouldn't recommend the strategy for new investors today — and shares his 3 top approaches
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-30 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Adam Craig built up his real-estate portfolio over the last decade-plus using the famous BRRRR strategy — an acronym for buy, rehab, rent, refinance, and repeat. But he has stopped using the strategy for residential properties and said it isn't something he'd recommend for new investors. ATTOMAnother risk to using the BRRRR strategy is that home prices are not rising as fast as they were over the last few years. 3 approaches to use insteadInstead of the BRRRR, Craig recommended that new investors start off with one of a few easier options. This way, risk is reduced in terms of the time it will take and money it will cost.

Persons: Adam Craig, Craig, Craig doesn't, that's, doesn't, Louis Fed Organizations: Business Locations: St

☆ There's still no certainty the Fed will be able to pull off three interest rate cuts this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

In that case, the Fed may have to push cuts out until the end of the year, confounding market expectations. If so, then the nonpolitical monetary policy committee might postpone considering rate cuts until after the November presidential elections," Yardeni wrote last week. "That could be the first rate cut decision of this year," Yardeni said. "We maintain our expectation of just two rate cuts this year , in July and December," economists at Nomura said in a client note. Clarida also noted that if the Fed judged inflation by the consumer price index instead of its preferred personal consumption expenditures price index, "we wouldn't even be discussing rate cuts."

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Jerome Powell, Powell, Nomura, Richard Clarida, Clarida Organizations: Yardeni Research, Fed, Market, CNBC

☆ There's really no need for the Fed to lower interest rates, says Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's really no need for the Fed to lower interest rates, says Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the Fed's interest rate outlook, state of the U.S. economy, and more.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Ed Yardeni Organizations: Fed, Yardeni Research Locations: U.S

☆ Wall Street is betting big on a soft landing for the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-18 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewRisk is back in fashion on Wall Street as investors shed their fears and become more adventurous with their cash. Wall Street is betting big on a soft landing, where the Fed succeeds in bringing inflation down without unemployment surging or a recession taking hold. Related storiesSimilarly, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a recent outlook that "risk appetite is poised to grow" this year as recession relief and rate cuts embolden investors. When the music stopsThe outlook for stocks and the economy might seem brighter, but it's worth being at least a little skeptical of the current enthusiasm. "Nobody seems to care about valuations, and now you have Wall Street strategists laying claim that we are in a brand new era," veteran economist David Rosenberg said in a recent note.

Persons: —, BII, Goldman Sachs, David Rosenberg, Jeremy Grantham, there's, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, Investors, BlackRock Investment Institute, Nvidia, Grantham, Swissquote Bank Locations: BlackRock

☆ Premarket stocks: Investors are on cloud nine. That could be a bad sign
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-15 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Unsurprisingly, several flashing indicators suggest that investors are feeling good about the market:• CNN’s Fear & Greed Index: The indicator, which measures seven barometers of market sentiment including the VIX, Wall Street’s most well-known measure of expected stock volatility, is in “greed” territory. Market sentiment is often seen as a contrarian indicator. That means that when the herd is optimistic, money managers take it as a sign that stocks will fall, and vice versa. A closely watched gauge of US wholesale inflation rose at its fastest pace in months, according to new data released Thursday. In February, car sales climbed 1.8%, purchases of electronics and appliances increased 1.5% and sales at restaurants rose 0.4%.

Persons: • Charles Schwab, Yardeni, “, Alicia Wallace, Price, Gus Faucher, Read, Bryan Mena Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Intelligence, Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, of Labor Statistics, PNC Financial Services, Retail, Commerce Department, Gas Locations: New York

☆ This is a long-term bull market, says Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThis is a long-term bull market, says Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss a possible broadening of the market and the tech sell-off.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Ed Yardeni

☆ Premarket stocks: What ‘Super Tuesday’ means for your portfolio
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Welcome to “Super Tuesday.” Today, a whopping 16 states and territories hold primary elections. But stock market analysts say not to fret and to hold tight. Based on annualized returns for the S&P 500, stocks gained an average 13.75% during Trump’s presidency. Election year math: History shows that stocks typically gain during the fourth year of presidential terms. The S&P 500 has gained 6.2% on average during the fourth year of presidential terms since 1932, according to Yardeni Research.

Persons: ’, Edward Jones, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Angelo Kourkafas, ” Kourkafas, Raymond James, Trump, Obama, ”, Simon Hamilton, Barack Obama, “ That’s, it’s, Hamilton, Goldman Sachs, Allison Morrow, Bitcoin, —, Simone McCarthy, Premier Li Qiang, Hong Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, ”, Markets, White House, Congress, CNN, Republicans, Republican, “, Research, Dow Jones, University of Cincinnati, University of Missouri, Securities and Exchange, Bloomberg, Premier, National People’s Congress Locations: New York, Washington, Hamilton, United States, China, Beijing

☆ The 'Magnificent 7' isn't all that magnificent, says Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe 'Magnificent 7' isn't all that magnificent, says Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss Apple's weakness and the tech sector's outlook.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Ed Yardeni

☆ Stocks hate this one weird trick from the calendar
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

New York CNN —Leap Day might seem like fun and games — until you consider Wall Street. To account for that gap, Julius Caesar in 45 BC decreed that an extra day be added every four years, leading to the Julian calendar. Pope Gregory XIII in 1582 AD created the Gregorian calendar, coined the term “leap year” and established February 29 as the official leap day. He adds that a leap day can also help marginally raise corporate earnings, since companies get an extra day in a fiscal quarter to operate. History shows that stocks tend to perform worse when an additional day is added to the calendar.

Persons: Julius Caesar, Pope Gregory XIII, Matt Weller, Weller, Dow, ”, “ Barbie ”, “ Oppenheimer, ’, Samantha Delouya, It’s, Read, Sam’s, Sam, Matt Egan, Banks Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Dow Jones, Bulls, Research, AMC Entertainment, AMC, Treasury Department, CNN, Treasury Locations: New York, FOREX.com

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